Accordingly, the floor is 40%. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). Hey NieWiederKrieg, I think a part of your brain must be dead. But a comparison between then and now also points to the challenges Johnson faces. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Meanwhile, Republican U.S. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. Most Americans are sickened by Joe Biden as much as they are sickened by Donald Trump. Buy It Now. Its not crazy to think he could be vulnerable in 2020. Gas prices have plummeted. Johnsons rhetoric on these issues has attracted a great deal of attention and controversy. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. ), Senators like Manchin and McConnell are exceptions, though. Thats not surprising, since were comparing his nine-year polling high point with his nine-year polling low point. Lt. Gov. In fact, senators from the party out of power (i.e., the party opposed to the sitting president . The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. Since 2015-16, Johnsons popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and from minus 19 to minus 32 with urban voters. The state has shifted right since Johnson's 3.4% win in 2016, and on paper, he chould be well positioned to win as a Republican running in a midterm with a Democratic president with low approval ratings. In Marquettes polling, most voters including about one-third of Republicans are skeptical toward Johnsons statements about COVID. Senator Ron Johnson's . Besides touting Republican wins on regulatory relief, strengthening the military and tax cuts, Johnson. His current term ends on January 3, 2029. ", Johnson has also refused to fight to locate jobs in the United States instead of abroad. Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they wont be able to get much done if their party doesnt also win the Senate. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. The poll also did head-to-head matchups of incumbent Republican U.S. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. Ron Johnson and His Wife Jane Johnson. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. Historically, the presidential election results in a given state have tracked closely with the Senate outcome there, and the two are only coming into closer alignment (in 2016, for example, the presidential and Senate outcome was the same in every state). I've done a really good job as Wisconsin's United States senator," he told Milwaukee television station WISN. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wisc.) Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. Toward the bottom of the list are five governors running for reelection whose approval ratings dont look as strong as they seem after taking partisan lean into account. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the . Wikler said every Democratic candidate has a slightly different path to victory and touted Democrats successful efforts to reduce Republican margins in the states deep red areas, swing the suburbs and increase the partys standing in urban communities. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. 1990 FLEER. . while Evers' approval rating remains above water. In that sense, I think we can be quite confident the decline is real, Franklin said. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. Biden's approval rating rises to 45% from 36% in July. However, the latest Maqrutee poll shows Johnson up 1% after a barrage of attacks ads. Plus 5 to minus 28 among moderates (the second sharpest decline). Results from the most recent update. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the . The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. In fact, the only current senator with a lower approval rating is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who has infamously blocked hundreds of popular pieces of legislation.. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. He ran behind the other three, with 44% versus 46% for Barnes, 43% versus 45% for Godlewski and 43% versus 44% for Nelson. House Republicans want to repeal Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. Combining the four surveys that Marquette has done over the past nine months, 35% of registered voters view Johnson favorably and 44% view him unfavorably a net rating of minus 9. Johnson won his bid for a second term that year by 3 points over Democrat Russ Feingold. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already spent money on primary-day attacks ads that accuse Johnson of working in Congress to benefit himself and wealthy donors at the expense of ordinary voters. Ditch the ads, get free stuff. Given the history of midterms and President Bidens negative job ratings, 2022 is expected to be a good year for Republicans. If the Democratic presidential nominee carries their states (admittedly, this will be easier for Colorado than for Texas), the party may get a Senate seat as a bonus. Meanwhile, only about 1 in 4 Wisconsin Republicans (27 percent) strongly approve of Johnsons job performance, which is down 9 points since the first three months of his term. The polling suggests that in the past two years, Johnson has positioned himself better for the first task than the second. Johnson, a Republican and staunch ally of Donald Trump, enjoys the approval of 45% of Trump votersthough a considerable 31% of Trump voters . The question is whether the results in 2020 will be closer to her net approval rating or Maines light-blue partisanship; splitting the difference yields a race that leans (or tilts) Republican, which is exactly where major election handicappers have it. Bemis, a major plastics manufacturer, had appointed Howard Curler as its CEO in 1978, and during the first several years of PACUR's existence, Bemis was the business' sole client. A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. Pollapalooza (249) He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. That gap is significantly bigger than it was from 2013 to 2019. . Only 6 percent of employees able to do their jobs remotely Scott and Kelly4 seem to be in the best position, especially Scott: Not only does he have more cross-party appeal than Kelly (+77 PARG), but he is also a Republican running in a good Republican year. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? Ronald Harold Johnson (Republican Party) is a member of the U.S. Senate from Wisconsin. So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. Her net approval rating in the Morning Consult poll has been on the decline over the past two years, but she still has a solid +13 net approval rating. He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. Got a confidential news tip? I'm not a polarizing figure at all. The partisan leans in this article were calculated before the 2018 elections; we havent calculated FiveThirtyEight partisan leans that incorporate the midterm results yet. Figures may not add up to 100% due to rounding. Today, the Democrat wins, he said. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. Plus 18 to minus 5 among voters in denser, metropolitan suburbs. R+23. . Johnson has also felt losses among voters from his own party. Thats why, today, were unveiling a metric of a senators political standing that takes both partisanship and popularity into account. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered . Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. Susan Collins (25). Unlike this trio, there are some senators whose electoral fates probably do hinge on the presidential race. We havent seen that kind of recovery yet in this cycle. Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. Wisconsin is over and over the one percentage point or less state the land of the nail-biter, said Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. Hi. A Morning Consult poll earlier this year had Johnson's approval rating at 36 percent. The senators name recognition has grown to its highest levels. The January 6 hearings are a dog and pony show They should be holding the Jeffrey Epstein Videotaped Every US Congressman that Visited Epstein Pedophile Island and then Epstein Blackmailed Them hearings Or how about the Joe Biden Staged a Coup in Kiev in 2014, Overthrew the Democratically Elected Government of Ukraine, Then Murdered Over 15,000 Russian Speaking Ukraine Civilians hearings. Partisan types. All rights reserved. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. Will they go back to the Republican Party because of Biden, or go to the polls and think, Yeah, I dont like Biden, but Ron Johnsons too crazy for Wisconsin?, Andrew Hitt, former chairman of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, called Johnson a master at retail politics whose plain-spoken, calling it as he sees it approach appeals to Wisconsinites when leveraged appropriately. . RCP House Ratings, Map. 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. A. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Johnsons slippage has been minimal among pro-Trump voters and voters who describe themselves as very conservative. It has been very steep among Democrats and liberals. Tony Earlagainst his four potential Republican challengers, with Evers leading all four and Kleefisch running closest to the governor. . That will be essential in a year when, based solely on partisan lean and generic congressional ballot polling, youd expect a Republican to win their home states, all else being equal. Sometimes there are these atmospheric waves where it doesnt matter what the campaign does, he said. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire, Mark Warner of Virginia and Tina Smith of Minnesota are electorally vulnerable. But his moderation has endeared him to voters in his home state of West Virginia: He has a +22 net approval rating in the R+36 state, for a chamber-leading PARS of +58. Since 2015-16, Johnson's popularity rating has gone from minus 50 to minus 73 with Democrats; from minus 54 to minus 76 with liberals; from minus 31 to minus 45 with nonreligious voters; and . There are far fewer voters than in the past who are undecided about Johnson, which could make it harder for him to improve his image over the course of this campaign. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. Stacker has compiled data ranking all of them based on their popularity and approval rating. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. The majority of senators have PARS scores in the single digits, indicating that their approval rating is largely determined by the partisanship of their states. In the head-to-head matchups for U.S. If the magic of 2016 (for Johnson) was to convert dont knows to favorables, this year it looks like people who didnt have an opinion are being converted into unfavorables, said Franklin. How Daniel Kelly worked with the GOP to fuel election denialism. He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. This includes Sens. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. 2023 Over the past year, Johnson has suffered through his longest and deepest period of unpopularity since Marquette began polling about him in early 2013 a stretch of 61 statewide polls.